September 10th, 2024 — Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
On September 10th, 2024, the User-Friendly Digital Predictor Tool for Dengue Prevention (E-DENGUE) Project held a consultation workshop in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hosted by the University of Queensland, Australia, the event focused on discussing the selection of early prediction models to forecast dengue risk in the Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam.
Figure: Experts discussing model selection.
Experts from the University of Queensland and Yale University presented advanced modeling techniques capable of predicting dengue outbreaks up to three months in advance. Their ensemble approaches and model outcomes sparked detailed discussions among participants, which included statistical and disease modeling specialists, as well as dengue prevention experts. Representatives from various health organizations in Vietnam, such as the Vietnam National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, the General Department of Preventive Medicine, and the Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, also took part, along with delegates from the World Health Organization (WHO), Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, and Vietnamese medical universities.
One of the key insights shared during the workshop was the need to integrate both statistical and mechanistic models to account for factors like immunity, population mobility, and local epidemiological trends. Additionally, discussions explored the application of different epidemic thresholds to better identify potential outbreaks.
Beyond the technical aspects of the models, the workshop also addressed the need for a user-friendly and practical software dashboard tailored to the requirements of local stakeholders. Future plans include discussions on intervention strategies and conducting thorough needs assessments over the coming years.
This workshop marked a significant step in refining prediction models to ensure accurate dengue risk forecasting three months in advance at the district level. For further details on the project’s activities, please visit the official E-DENGUE website at http://edengue.com.